Tracking the Senate Races, October 30: Dems, 58-41 -- MN "Up For Grabs"
Our latest look at the polls available in the Senate races reveals Democrats strengthening their position with regard to one incumbent Republican's seat, and slipping into a dead heat on another. Days ago, we noted that the consensus 59-41 projection presumed narrow losses by EFCA opponents Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), Norm Coleman (R-MN) and Ted Stevens (R-AK).
This morning, Election-Vote.com suggests that following Senator Stevens' conviction Monday, Democratic challenger Mark Begich's lead has improved from "barely" to "weak." This morning's Rasmussen poll, however, paints a more pessimistic outlook for Sen. Stevens and the GOP, showing them trailing by 8 points.
In Minnesota, however, Election-Vote now suggests a tie between incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman (R) and challenger Al Franken (D). Rasmussen shows an 8 point swing in Coleman's favor, from 4 points down to 4 ahead in this week's poll. That puts the latest RealClear Politics average at a statistical tie (Coleman by 0.5). Still Senator Obama maintains a significant 12 point spread over Senator McCain in the state.
Some, like LRI's Don Wilson, have noted that Senator Obama's coat-tails could very well impact some of these races come Election Day.
Putting Alaska more firmly in the Dems' column, considering Minnesota a toss-up and including the Independent Senators with the Dem Caucus, thus gives the Democrats a projected 58 to 41 margin -- with Minnesota a very significant question mark.






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