As we have noted, the immediate future of EFCA depends largely on whether or not the Democratic caucus can obtain a succesful cloture vote to defeat a Senate filibuster in 2009.  That, in turn, depends largely on how close the Party gets to holding 60 seats in the Senate.  Reviewing the polling trends the past few weeks, it appears more and more likely that North Carolina and Minnesota may be the key races in this regard.

If the Democratic challengers win both those seats, EFCA proponents can probably count on 59 certain votes -- the 57 Democrats, most of whom voted in favor of cloture last year, plus the 2 Independents, who both caucus with the Democrats on most issues.

That places certain "swing votes," like longtime labor-friendly Republican Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA) in an extremely critical position.  Regular readers of EFCA Updates will recall that Senator Specter did vote for cloture in 2007, but delivered a floor speech critical of some aspects of EFCA.  He has also since published a Policy Essay questioning the bill, but stressing the need for a bipartisan approach to labor law reform.  What might he do with a Democrat in the White House and enough Democratic votes in Congress to pass the bill as is?

In the meantime, as of the most recent polling data, here's how things look in...

North Carolina

Incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) continues to struggle against Democrat challenger Kay Hagan.  Electoral-vote.com continues to list the race as "Barely Dem."  In numbers released yesterday, Rasmussen had Hagan up by 6 points.  Both Civitas/TelOpinion and National Journal had the margin at a slimmer 2 point lead for the challenger.  The RealClear Politics nine-day average shows a 3.2 point lead for Hagan.

Minnesota

Electoral-vote.com revised its projection yesterday that the race was a dead-heat, tipping it slightly in favor of challenger Al Franken (D) by a single point.  It appears the difference is their incorporation of an intermediate University of Minnesota poll which shifted a 40-40 composite to 40-39.  RealClear Politics does not list the U. Minn. poll in its collected data, but today includes a new NBC/Mason-Dixon poll which gives Coleman the nod among "likely voters" by a tally of 42-36.  The RCP two-week average puts Coleman ahead by 2.4 points.  The most recent polls do also indicate a large number of undecided voters, and as many as 12 percent supporting Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley.